Fairfield County Real Estate Market Update: February 2026 Trends

Why Local Supply Constraints are Defying National Headlines

It already feels like we have been in winter for a while now. Between the snow, icy mornings, and Punxsutawney Phil officially calling for six more weeks, it is definitely the kind of winter that makes people want to stay put. Interestingly, that has not slowed buyers down at all. Serious buyers are still out looking and ready to move. Sellers, on the other hand, are often waiting for green grass, safer walkways, and homes that show their best once spring arrives.

As we move into February, there is no shortage of national headlines predicting a more balanced housing market in 2026. More inventory. Improved affordability. A shift in leverage toward buyers. But as always, real estate is local, and here in Fairfield County the story looks very different.

Across the Northeast, supply continues to be the driving force behind the market. Pricing in Fairfield County is still dictated by limited inventory, neighborhood desirability, and buyer competition rather than national averages. Well located homes in good condition are continuing to sell quickly and often with strong terms.
Mortgage rates may ease slightly this year, which helps buyer confidence, but rates alone are not unlocking inventory. Many homeowners are still holding historically low mortgage rates, and that rate lock in continues to keep resale supply tight.

The Numbers at a Glance – very similar to last month
• Fairfield County’s median sale price end of January 2026 was $800,000, up 8.8% year-over-year
• Every town in Fairfield County saw price appreciation, though growth varied by location
• Homes for sale across the county was up by only 18 homes
• Average days on market: 31 days
• List-to-sale price ratio: 102.9%
• Months of supply: 2.4 months, unchanged from last year

These numbers reinforce one thing: inventory remains well below pre-2020 levels (3,693 home difference), and “more inventory” does not mean “enough inventory.” Homes are selling within a month and often over asking price.

What this has created is a two speed market. Homes that are well priced, well located, and in strong condition often still feel like a weekend market, with immediate interest and competitive offers. At the same time, homes that miss on price, condition, layout, or location are not seeing the same urgency. Those listings tend to sit longer, giving buyers time to compare options and negotiate. Pricing correctly from the start matters more than ever.

Supply remains locked up for several reasons. One of the biggest is the move up seller. Many homeowners are holding mortgage rates in the 3% to 4% range. Moving today often means trading that for a rate closer to 6%, creating a significant monthly payment difference. That payment shock alone is enough to pause many moves, even for homeowners who would otherwise like to sell. New construction has not been able to meaningfully fill the gap either, as Fairfield County is largely built out, with limited land and mostly small scale development.

For buyers, the key shift is understanding when to move quickly and when to slow down. Not every listing requires bidding war energy. The best prepared buyers are the ones who can act decisively when a home checks the boxes, but remain patient and strategic when a listing has been sitting long enough for leverage to reappear. Cash and cash like certainty continue to matter, with clean terms, clear timelines, and fewer surprises often carrying as much weight as price.

For sellers, especially those thinking about moving up, the first week on the market matters more than ever. Homes that win early tend to set the tone for the entire transaction. Homes that miss that initial window often face a very different buyer response. Over asking sales are still happening, but only for homes that are truly positioned to win in today’s market. Listing high and hoping is far less effective than pricing with intention and planning the entire move as a sequence.

The takeaway as we head deeper into 2026 is simple. Fairfield County has not cooled. It remains a supply constrained market that rewards precision. The homes that are priced correctly, presented well, and located in desirable neighborhoods continue to move quickly. At the same time, homes that fall just slightly short create opportunities for buyers who understand where leverage exists.

Success here is about understanding your specific town, neighborhood, price range, and timing, and building a strategy around that reality.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just want to talk through your options, I’m always happy to be a resource. Feel free to reach out anytime, whether your plans are immediate or still on the horizon, I’m here to help guide you through the process with clarity and confidence.